South Sudan faces rising violence as political tensions escalate, particularly in Upper Nile State. Uganda’s military intervention has led to opposition boycotts of peace talks, threatening the 2018 power-sharing agreement. Recent clashes in Nasir County have resulted in numerous casualties as historical ethnic grievances resurface. To prevent civil war, the government must engage in dialogue, avoid arbitrary arrests, and the international community must advocate for de-escalation and political solutions.
In South Sudan, an increase in political tensions and violence, especially in the Upper Nile State, has raised alarms about a potential return to civil war. In March 2025, Uganda deployed troops at South Sudan’s request, conducting aerial bombings. The opposition groups criticized this intervention, halting their participation in military discussions, jeopardizing the 2018 power-sharing agreement intended to end the previous civil war. Jan Pospisil highlights the factors propelling the growing discontent in South Sudan.
As of March 2025, violence erupted when the White Army, a militia from the Nuer community, clashed with the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Nasir County. Such altercations have claimed nearly 50 lives and injured numerous others, while the White Army claims self-defense. This violence reflects a continuation of prior conflict patterns and has worsened due to governmental responses involving military actions with Ugandan support and the arrest of opposition leaders.
The historical context reveals long-standing tensions between the Nuer and Dinka communities, worsened by the SPLM’s 1991 split, leading to the formation of factions like SPLM-Nasir. The White Army arose during this time to protect the Nuer, but it has not been under any political control, complicating the current landscape. No attempts by Riek Machar have successfully unified the Nuer militias, including the White Army.
Comparatively, today’s violence diverges from the 2013 civil war’s devastation in Nasir. The recent skirmishes were sparked by provocations rather than organized directives. The White Army’s recent assaults appear reactive. Clashes emerged when White Army members confronted soldiers, leading to retaliatory violence that further escalated tensions, culminating in the government suffering a substantial loss in March 2025.
The SPLM-led government has resorted to scapegoating opposition members, arresting prominent figures like oil minister Puot Kang Chol, despite the White Army historically operating independently. These arrests seem more a strategy to diminish opposition rather than addressing underlying issues. Resolving this conflict necessitates dialogue and community demobilization, coupled with government restraint from arbitrary arrests and violent attacks against civilians.
Engagement with community leaders influencing White Army factions is essential for negotiations aimed at reducing hostilities. The anticipated rainy season in April could serve as a strategic timeframe for implementing confidence-building measures between the Nuer community and the national army. Following the emergence of violence, the international community has condemned the situation without substantial action.
The UN mission in South Sudan emphasized restraint yet often overlooks the complexity of White Army dynamics. Failure to address the oppositional arrests fosters government narratives justifying military aggression. Urging for de-escalation and underscoring the necessity for political solutions to resolve underlying issues will be vital for South Sudan’s future stability.
The rising violence and political tensions in South Sudan present a troubling scenario that threatens to plunge the nation back into civil war. Historical grievances between ethnic groups have played a crucial role in escalating current conflicts. To foster stability, it is imperative that the South Sudanese government engages in meaningful dialogue, refrains from punitive measures against opposition leaders, and involves community factions in peace negotiations. Furthermore, the international community must take proactive steps to support de-escalation and a political resolution to the deep-seated grievances within the country.
Original Source: theconversation.com
