Growing violence and political tensions in South Sudan, particularly in the Upper Nile State, are raising fears of a potential return to civil war. The involvement of Uganda’s military, amid opposition from local groups, threatens the fragile power-sharing agreement established in 2018. Historical rivalries between the Nuer and Dinka communities compound the conflict, necessitating dialogue and cooperation to avert further escalation and foster stability.
Recent violence in South Sudan has triggered heightened concerns over a potential resurgence of civil war, particularly amid rising political tensions and escalating conflicts in the Upper Nile State. Uganda’s military involvement, following a request from the South Sudanese government, has further complicated the situation, leading to strong opposition from local groups. This has jeopardized the fragile power-sharing agreement established in 2018 between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar, which had temporarily halted a five-year civil war.
The situation deteriorated in March 2025, when the White Army, a militia of the Nuer community, attacked South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Upper Nile State, resulting in casualties and claims of self-defense. This incident, albeit part of longstanding patterns of conflict, signals an alarming escalation not controlled by any central authority, exacerbating existing grievances in the region. The government’s heavy-handed military response, including aerial bombardments and arrests of opposition figures, has intensified tensions further.
Historically, the roots of this conflict stem from deep-seated animosities between the Nuer and Dinka communities, which were exacerbated by the SPLM’s split in 1991. The White Army, originally formed for self-defense and cattle raiding, remains autonomous and has historically operated independently of political entities. Understanding this independence is key to addressing South Sudan’s current predicament, as conflating White Army actions with those of the opposition undermines the complexity of the situation.
The current outbreaks of violence differ from the chaos of the 2013 civil war when government forces aimed at punishing Nuer civilians. Recent attacks by the White Army appear to be provoked rather than directed by political leadership. Tensions intensified after a violent incident in February where Nuer militia attacked soldiers collecting firewood, leading to retaliatory violence that further destabilized the region and humiliated the national army.
Amidst this chaotic backdrop, government scapegoating of opposition groups has increased, with important figures being arrested. These actions are seen as attempts to distract from the government’s failures in preventing violence rather than genuine efforts to restore peace. To foster stability, the government must engage in dialogue while avoiding arbitrary arrests and military responses that endanger civilians.
Creating pathways for peace necessitates community demobilization and negotiations with influential local leaders. The upcoming rainy season could serve as a strategic time for confidence-building measures, reducing the feasibility of military engagements and encouraging cooperation. The international community’s response to the crisis has thus far been limited to condemnations without significant action, often missing the complexities surrounding White Army autonomy.
In conclusion, to avert a return to civil war in South Sudan, it is imperative for the government to embrace peaceful negotiations and abandon reckless military strategies that adversely affect civilians. Cooperation with community leaders during this critical time could yield stability, while the international community must advocate effectively for political solutions to tackle the underlying issues at play.
In summary, the rising violence in South Sudan is threatening to disrupt peace once again, largely due to deep-seated ethnic tensions, government mismanagement, and foreign intervention. To prevent a repeat of past civil wars, it is essential for the government to prioritize dialogue and community engagement, while avoiding heavy-handed military responses that exacerbate tensions. A collaborative approach involving influential local actors may provide the necessary foundation for lasting stability in the region, alongside a reformed response from the international community toward these complex dynamics.
Original Source: eastleighvoice.co.ke
