A power struggle within the TPLF risks reigniting conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, potentially involving Eritrea. Key players have taken control of strategic locations, leading to accusations of collusion with Eritrea. Concerns over military ambitions heighten regional tension, with experts warning of imminent conflict affecting broader areas, including Sudan.
The unfolding power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) poses a renewed threat of conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which may spill over into Eritrea. A dissident faction has recently taken control of key locations, prompting accusations of collusion with the Eritrean government to destabilize the interim administration led by Getachew Reda. Reda, who succeeded Debretsion Gebremichael after a peace deal in 2022, claims the rival faction seeks to re-ignite civil war hostilities.
Eritrea’s historical resentment towards the TPLF, stemming from past alliances that deteriorated into a prolonged border war, adds complexity to the current crisis. Despite international calls for withdrawal, Eritrean forces continue to occupy disputed regions from earlier conflicts. Reda expressed concerns that these tensions could escalate further, describing Tigray as a potential “buffer zone” in the event of military actions from Ethiopia.
Internally, dissent exists among factions within the TPLF regarding a peace agreement that marginalized certain groups and required disarmament. The paramilitary Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), previously neutral, recently aligned with Debretsion’s faction amid allegations they are negotiating control over illegal gold resources. Ethiopia’s loss of sea access due to Eritrea’s independence heightens tensions as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed seeks military means to establish port access, leading to fears of broader regional conflict.
Experts, including former U.S. and EU officials, warn of imminent conflict due to heightened military mobilization. They note that a major war could destabilize the entire region, with potential involvement from Sudan. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with many affected by previous conflicts reliant on aid, yet logistical support has faltered since prior U.S. interventions ceased.
Other regional developments include the withdrawal of the Rwanda-backed M23 from peace negotiations in Congo and rising diplomatic tensions following the expulsion of the South African ambassador by the United States. Additionally, a significant environmental disaster occurred in Zambia due to a mine spill, affecting millions and showcasing the adverse consequences of foreign mining operations in Africa. Furthermore, Starlink’s entrance into the Nigerian broadband market highlights ongoing technological advancements amid these regional challenges.
In summary, the TPLF’s internal divisions have significantly heightened the potential for conflict in Tigray, which may have implications for Eritrea and the broader Horn of Africa. The historical context of the TPLF-Eritrea relations, coupled with recent military activities, signals a precarious situation that requires urgent international attention. Additionally, implications from conflicts in surrounding nations, such as Congo and Sudan, alongside environmental and diplomatic crises, further complicate the regional landscape and emphasize the need for coordinated efforts to prevent escalation.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
