A study by the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy forecasts that China’s share in the rare earth market could decrease from 62% to 28% by 2035, and further to 23% by 2040. This decline is attributed to the rise of competitors from Africa, South America, and Australia.
A recent study published in the journal Chinese Rare Earths by researchers from the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy forecasts a significant decline in China’s dominance in the rare earth market. Currently, China holds an estimated 62 percent share of these valuable materials, but the study predicts this figure may plummet to 28 percent by 2035 due to emerging global competitors.
The researchers anticipate a further reduction in share to 23 percent by 2040, indicating that China may entirely lose its dominant position. This predicted shift is attributed to the potential opening of new mining operations in regions such as Africa, South America, and Australia, which could markedly alter the industry’s landscape.
Additionally, the heavy rare earth resources located in southern China, predominantly found in ion-adsorption clays, may face competition from notable projects like Greenland’s Kvanefjeld and other initiatives in South America. This highlights the international dynamics and challenges impacting China’s current rare earth holdings and future production capabilities.
In conclusion, the study underscores a critical transformation in the rare earth industry, with projections indicating that China’s share may drastically decline over the next decade. The emergence of new mining operations in various global regions signifies a potential reconfiguration of the market, threatening China’s longstanding dominance in rare earth production.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
