The Tigray People’s Liberation Front faces internal conflicts that threaten the peace established after a previous civil war, with accusations that rival factions are collaborating with Eritrean authorities to reignite violence. Meanwhile, regional tensions escalate with the M23 rebels withdrawing from peace discussions, and environmental disasters impact local communities in Zambia. Diplomatic relations are tested, particularly following the U.S.’s expulsion of South Africa’s ambassador due to critical comments. These interconnected regional developments highlight the urgent need for diplomatic approaches to prevent further instability.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is experiencing a power struggle that poses a renewed risk of conflict in northern Ethiopia, potentially escalating tensions with Eritrea. Recently, a dissident faction overtook the regional radio station in Mekelle and captured Adigrat, leading to claims of a coup. Getachew Reda, the interim leader, accuses the rival faction of collaborating with Eritrean authorities to restart civil warfare.
Following the peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, in 2022 that ended a two-year civil war, Getachew was positioned as leader after replacing Debretsion Gebremichael. Eritrea, dissatisfied with its exclusion from the deal, remains intent on dismantling the TPLF, meeting with longstanding antagonism from a brutal border war in the late 1990s.
Despite calls for withdrawal from contested regions held by Eritrean troops, Getachew suggested that Eritrea desires to use Tigray as a security buffer against potential aggression from Ethiopia. Some factions within the TPLF contend that the peace accord marginalized their interests while benefitting those who facilitated the interim leadership.
The paramilitary Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) have shifted allegiance, now supporting Debretsion amid concerns over illegal gold mining proceeds. Additionally, Ethiopia’s aspirations for access to a Red Sea port, especially amidst Turkish negotiations with Somalia, have amplified Eritrean anxieties about a potential military response from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Analysts such as Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos highlight that the extensive troop mobilizations indicate a looming conflict, which could also entangle Sudan and exacerbate instability throughout the region. The aftermath of the past civil war saw around 600,000 fatalities, with thousands still living in camps without necessary humanitarian assistance.
In related regional affairs, Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have withdrawn from peace negotiations amid escalating tensions. Moreover, the United States expelled South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool following his critical remarks about then-President Donald Trump and his policies towards Israel, showcasing strained diplomatic relations.
Additional regional developments include a significant acid spill from a Chinese mine contaminating Zambia’s Kafue River, threatening the livelihoods of millions reliant on its resources. As issues of governance, regional conflict, and foreign relations unfold, the situation remains precarious, necessitating prioritized diplomatic engagement to avert further escalation.
Lastly, Starlink’s rapid growth in Nigeria has positioned it as a key player in the broadband sector, despite criticisms regarding its impact on local providers and infrastructure. As Africa grapples with these multifaceted challenges, sustained monitoring and responsive interventions are critical.
To explore deeper into the various issues affecting the region, further developments will continue to be discussed in the weekly Africa Brief.
The ongoing power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front poses significant risks of escalating conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Distrust and historical animosities compound these tensions, particularly regarding territorial control and resource competition. The Tigray conflict’s potential resurgence underscores the urgent need for diplomatic engagement at the international level. Additionally, regional dynamics encompass various issues, including diplomatic relations, environmental crises, and connectivity challenges, necessitating comprehensive attention to foster stability in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
