Ethiopia’s Tigray region faces renewed conflict as internal power struggles within the TPLF escalate. A coup has led to a shift in provincial control while fears mount over renewed violence. Additionally, tensions with Eritrea complicate the landscape as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister seeks to regain access to the Red Sea. Experts warn of imminent conflict if negotiations fail, highlighting the precarious state of the region.
The situation in Ethiopia’s Tigray region remains volatile as the potential for renewed conflict looms. Aregawi, a local tour-guide entrepreneur turned frontline fighter since the 2020 outbreak of war, expresses concern over rising tensions, stating that it seems “like war is near, maybe even inevitable.” The previous war concluded in 2022, resulting in approximately 600,000 deaths and widespread sexual violence, yet the ceasefire provisions have largely gone unimplemented while the ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has faced internal fractures over resource control.
Tensions intensified as Getachew Reda, Tigray’s interim president, sought to remove senior military leaders after accusing them of a coup attempt. In a crucial shift, a rival faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael has effectively taken control of provincial offices in Mekelle, displacing Getachew who fled to Addis Ababa. Recent violence led to fatalities, prompting widespread withdrawal of cash by residents and heightened security concerns in the capital.
Amid these developments, fears of war are compounded by escalating tensions between Ethiopia and its neighbor, Eritrea. Although the two countries allied during the Tigray war, their relationship has soured due to Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s pursuit of strategic coastal access at Assab port, a move perceived as vital for Ethiopia’s future. Eritrea has mobilized its forces and is purportedly supporting TPLF factions opposing Abiy.
As military activity increases along the Eritrean border, Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae has warned that conflict might reignite soon. Former special envoys Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos noted that current conditions resemble “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.” Though Abiy has stated a preference for peaceful negotiations over Assab, the region’s political dynamics remain precarious.
The prospect of renewed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is exacerbated by internal strife within the ruling TPLF and rising tensions with Eritrea. The complex interplay of military posturing, resource disputes, and regional ambitions poses significant risks. Abiy Ahmed’s desire for a peaceful solution is challenged by historical grievances and current geopolitical maneuvers, making the situation precariously unstable and without clear resolution.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
