Professor Jok Madut Jok warns that South Sudan’s 2018 peace deal is failing amid escalating tensions between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar. He highlights the critical choices facing the SPLM/A-IO, ongoing communal conflicts, economic hardships, and government accountability issues as key problems that may lead to renewed conflict. Prof. Jok emphasizes that the coming months will be decisive in determining South Sudan’s path toward peace or chaos.
Professor Jok Madut Jok, a distinguished South Sudanese political analyst and professor of anthropology at Syracuse University, has issued a grave warning regarding the precarious state of the 2018 peace agreement in South Sudan. In a recent interview with Radio Tamazuj, he expressed concerns about escalating tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, suggesting that South Sudan may be on the verge of renewed civil conflict.
Professor Jok indicated that the opposition party SPLM/A-IO, led by Dr. Machar, faces critical decisions that could impact the country’s future. He stated, “The peace agreement is collapsing. The SPLA-IO must decide whether to swallow their pride or go back to the bush to fight. This is a detrimental decision for the country.”
He remarked on Dr. Machar’s vulnerable situation, noting that he is effectively under house arrest with fragmented political and military leadership. “Some of his commanders are in hiding, while others are in the bush. The SPLM-IG [the ruling party] has taken over government positions allocated to other parties,” he said, underscoring the implications of these actions on the peace agreement.
Professor Jok stressed that if the current dynamics persist, the peace agreement will unravel completely. He warned, “The SPLM-IG will consolidate power, exclude others, and the agreement will no longer hold. The opposition will then have to choose between submission or rebellion. The future of the peace deal hangs in the balance.”
In discussing the broader context, Professor Jok highlighted the rise in violent communal conflicts across South Sudan, linking these developments to political disputes in Juba. He stated, “Conflicts are increasing and becoming more lethal,” emphasizing ongoing tensions among various ethnic groups and the lack of peace for the general populace.
Furthermore, he criticized the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) for failing to address underlying issues of violence, remarking, “The agreement may have silenced the guns between the SPLA-IO and the SSPDF, but it has not brought peace to everyday lives.”
Professor Jok portrayed South Sudan’s economic landscape as dire, marked by failed harvests and disrupted trade, alarming consequences should the region revert to large-scale warfare. He noted that political leaders appear focused on power retention at the expense of their citizens’ wellbeing.
He further condemned the deployment of Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) in South Sudan, describing it as “an insult to South Sudanese,” and warned that such actions could exacerbate existing conflicts, alienating communities.
Professor Jok expressed deep concern over the government’s failure to compensate its own soldiers while paying foreign troops, arguing that this neglect fosters resentment within the national army. He asserted, “Neglecting the national army in favor of foreign troops undermines the country’s unity and sovereignty.”
He called for collective accountability among South Sudanese, urging citizens to speak out against injustices, emphasizing that, “What happens in Upper Nile affects all of us.” He warned that continued undemocratic consolidation of power by the SPLM-IG could prompt international disengagement.
In conclusion, Professor Jok emphasized the critical juncture facing South Sudan, stating, “The choices made in the coming weeks and months will determine whether the country descends into further chaos or finds a path to lasting peace.”
In summary, Professor Jok Madut Jok’s insights reveal that the peace agreement in South Sudan is deteriorating due to escalating political tensions and the threat of civil unrest. The opposition faces dire choices, and the situation regarding communal conflicts, economic hardships, and government accountability exacerbates the crisis. Urgent and united action is necessary to steer the nation toward stability and peace.
Original Source: www.radiotamazuj.org
