Ethiopia is embroiled in a multifaceted crisis marked by ethnic conflict, political instability under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and an escalating economic crisis. Despite a peace agreement, tensions with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front are high, and hostility has emerged from the Amhara and Oromo groups, threatening Abiy’s governance. A quest for sea access, underscored by a controversial agreement with Somaliland, adds geopolitical risks. The Horn of Africa faces potential regional instability and humanitarian disasters without effective diplomacy.
Ethiopia is currently experiencing a severe political and social crisis characterized by ethnic tensions, economic challenges, and increasing instability. The civil war in the Tigray region from 2020 to 2022 has left the nation weary and uncertain. Although the Pretoria peace agreement provided a temporary respite, the fractures between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) persist.
The peace agreement has only deepened internal divisions within the TPLF. Factions exist that are either willing to cooperate with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed or vehemently oppose his leadership. This strategy of exploiting internal rifts for power consolidation poses significant risks, as the possibility of renewed armed conflict in Tigray looms larger, threatening the already fragile stability of the country.
Furthermore, Abiy Ahmed faces increasing hostility from the Amhara ethnic group, Ethiopia’s second-largest demographic. Many Amhara militias previously aligned with the government against the TPLF viewed themselves as integral to Abiy’s war strategy and anticipated recognition of their interests post-victory. However, feelings of betrayal have emerged due to the government’s moves to disarm their paramilitary forces amidst ongoing land disputes with the Tigray region.
Since 2023, a growing resistance movement has surfaced in Amhara, leading to violent clashes with the Ethiopian army. While the government has enacted a state of emergency, the opposition remains steadfast. Amhara leaders accuse Abiy of fostering an Oromo hegemony and neglecting their rights.
Ironically, resistance is also rising in Oromia, Abiy’s home region. Once hopeful about Abiy’s leadership, many Oromo citizens now contend with feelings of disappointment and betrayal. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continues its guerrilla warfare against the government, claiming that Abiy’s administration neglects Oromo interests.
Ethiopia is also grappling with severe economic distress, characterized by soaring inflation, rising unemployment, and food scarcity. The prices for basic staples have increased dramatically, straining family budgets. With significant debts owed to international creditors like China and the World Bank, economic reforms are essential to avert a financial crisis.
The interplay of ethnic strife, political volatility, and economic hardship jeopardizes Ethiopia’s future. Analysts warn that the nation risks devolving into a “failed state” due to Abiy’s ineffective governance. Having shifted from a figure of hope to one synonymous with war, Abiy seeks to divert scrutiny of domestic failures through assertive foreign policy initiatives.
A significant aspect of this strategy involves an urgent quest for maritime access. Since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia has been landlocked, relying heavily on Djibouti’s ports for trade. Rather than pursuing diplomatic reconciliation, Abiy utilizes historical grievances regarding coastal access as a political rallying point.
This demand is not novel in Ethiopia’s history; previous leaders leveraged similar rhetoric to disguise expansionist goals. Abiy’s narrative claims Ethiopia’s historical right to territorial access while ignoring the diplomatic complexities that would necessitate neighboring consent. His aggressive stance risks destabilizing regional relations.
A controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland signed on January 1, 2024, unprecedentedly grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease for Red Sea access. The agreement provoked immediate backlash, particularly from Somalia, which regards Somaliland as part of its territory. Somalia’s government has issued strong warnings against the potential escalation this agreement might invite.
Additionally, tensions with Eritrea are re-escalating, as reports indicate military buildups along their shared border. Abiy’s rhetoric regarding Ethiopia’s need for coast access is perceived in Eritrea as menacing. Given their tumultuous history, a confrontation between these nations could have dire ramifications, potentially embroiling Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan in conflict.
The Horn of Africa remains one of the most fraught geopolitical arenas globally. A military rift between Ethiopia and Eritrea could kindle widespread instability, particularly involving neighboring nations and external actors such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, each seeking to capitalize on the situation. The humanitarian fallout could be catastrophic, with millions potentially displaced and exacerbating existing issues like hunger and poverty.
It is uncertain whether Abiy can navigate these geopolitical challenges through diplomacy instead of militaristic approaches. However, without substantial and sustainable diplomatic efforts, the Horn of Africa is vulnerable to another devastating conflict with far-reaching consequences. The international community must urgently address these tensions to prevent a crisis from spiraling further.
In conclusion, Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture facing multifaceted crises due to ethnic tensions, political instability, and severe economic challenges. Abiy Ahmed’s governance has led to increased resistance and dissatisfaction among various groups, while his aggressive foreign policy strategies, including a quest for maritime access, exacerbate regional tensions. The risk of conflict spreading throughout the Horn of Africa is palpable, underscoring the urgent need for diplomatic engagement and solutions to avert a humanitarian disaster. The international community’s role will be pivotal in fostering peace and stability within the region.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
