The conflict in Sudan continues as the SAF advances in Khartoum, while the RSF seeks to form a rival government. Recent military gains by the SAF signify a pivotal change in the conflict dynamics, exacerbated by humanitarian crises and external pressures. Analysts caution that without decisive international action, the situation could further deteriorate, complicating future peace efforts across the region.
As Sudan endures nearly two years of conflict, the ongoing struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) raises significant concerns. Recent efforts by the RSF to establish a parallel government stem from a loss of influence and global standing. This drive, according to analyst Jihad Mashamoun, aims to garner recognition and legitimacy amid humanitarian crises exacerbated by conflict, resulting in thousands of casualties and millions displaced.
The RSF’s ambitions became apparent with the signing of a “political charter” in Kenya in February 2023. This initiative is perceived as a response to their territorial losses and international sanctions. Mashamoun suggests that these developments mirror similar dynamics in Libya, hinting that Hemedti aims to replicate Khalifa Haftar’s strategy by creating rival governance structures.
The Sudanese army has recently secured strategic victories, including the capture of El-Obeid, which ended a prolonged RSF siege. Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group underscores the significance of Khartoum, asserting its capture would mark a crucial victory for the SAF, potentially shifting hostilities to regions like Darfur and Kordofan. The SAF has since articulated a new political paradigm focused on reclaiming lost territories.
Experts express concern that the conflict may escalate before a resolution is achieved. Both analysts warn that external pressures and military dynamics could complicate any peace agreement, with Burhan facing potential opposition should he pursue negotiations with the RSF. Furthermore, Mashamoun advocates for stronger international measures against the RSF to diminish its operational viability and support abroad.
Amid these developments, the necessity for the international community to recalibrate its approach is evident. Rather than treating both factions as equals, addressing the violence’s impact on Sudan’s civilian population remains crucial. The path to rebuilding will involve addressing war crimes and restoring democratic governance as the primary goals moving forward.
In summary, Sudan’s prolonged conflict between the SAF and RSF showcases a complex interplay of military strategies and political ambitions. The RSF’s attempts to establish a parallel government reflect their diminishing credibility amid international scrutiny. Simultaneously, the Sudanese army’s territorial gains signal a pivotal shift in the conflict dynamics. Experts remain cautious about the prospects for peace, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to address both military gains and subsequent governance challenges.
Original Source: www.aa.com.tr
