Lebanon and Syria’s futures are intricately connected, especially following the new leadership in both countries. While there is potential to reset relations post-Assad, significant risks remain, particularly regarding sectarian tensions and regional conflicts. Hezbollah’s diminished influence complicates the landscape as both nations navigate their interdependencies and the threat from Israel.
Lebanon and Syria’s futures are closely linked, especially following the rise of interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Syria and the new leadership in Lebanon led by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. This change opens the potential for a reset in bilateral relations, but also presents the risks of sectarian fragmentation and renewed conflict dynamics that threaten peace and stability.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, was met with celebrations in Lebanon, marking a pivotal moment in modern history. Over the decades, Syria’s military presence in Lebanon had been a source of contention, with Hezbollah serving as a key ally of the Assad regime. The ending of this regime, however, complicates Hezbollah’s position, having been heavily reliant on Syrian support.
Hezbollah, which has been a dominant actor in Lebanese politics and military affairs, experienced a significant setback with the collapse of the Assad regime. This loss undermines Hezbollah’s power, as it had heavily depended on Syria for arms and political support, rendering it vulnerable to both regional foes and local dissent.
Additionally, the new Syrian government exhibits hostility towards Hezbollah, complicating the prospects of cooperation between them. Following the funeral for Hezbollah’s late leader, reactions from Syrian factions emphasized their disdain for the organization, showcasing the shifting sentiment in post-Assad Syria that can impact Lebanese-Syrian relations.
Local opposition to Hezbollah in Lebanon further complicates the political landscape. The group’s involvement in the Syrian conflict has contributed to Lebanon’s economic decline, amplifying discontent toward its actions. This shift in public sentiment corresponds to the diminished political clout Hezbollah now holds in Lebanon after Assad’s ouster.
Relations between Lebanon and Syria are strained by unresolved territorial issues and the Syrian regime’s response to Israel’s military actions. The new Syrian leadership’s indifference towards Israel’s aggression raises concerns for Lebanon, which seeks assurances regarding its security in the context of the ongoing Israeli threat.
Encroaching Salafist groups in Lebanon pose another challenge to stability, as they may strengthen ties with extremists in Syria. Tensions in cross-border areas fueled by sectarian dynamics can easily escalate, highlighting the fragility of both nations in the wake of recent conflicts.
Following deadly clashes along the Lebanese-Syrian border, communication between the two governments was quick to reaffirm their commitment to preventing further escalation. However, underlying tensions and power struggles among different factions within Syria complicate the potential for sustained peace and collaboration.
Negotiation over sensitive issues like frozen Syrian assets and the return of refugees will be pivotal for improved Lebanese-Syrian relations. Yet, varying perspectives among Lebanese political parties regarding Syrian integration and Iran’s influence will continue to create friction in bilateral dealings.
The changing dynamics in regional politics, particularly concerning Israel’s military actions and potential extremist threats in Syria, suggest Lebanon and Syria face myriad challenges ahead. Instability in Syria, combined with Hezbollah’s unwillingness to disarm, signifies that the road to fruitful cooperation may be fraught with difficulties as conflicts in the region sharpen.
In summary, the current relations between Lebanon and Syria hinge on the shifting political landscape following Assad’s regime collapse. While a potential for constructive ties exists under the new leaderships in both countries, tensions related to sectarian divides, regional conflicts, and Hezbollah’s decreased influence complicate the pathway to stability. Vigilance in both governments is essential to navigate these complexities and establish a foundation for future cooperation in a challenging environment.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
