In anticipation of the April 13 elections, Ecuador’s incumbent President Daniel Noboa proposes foreign military involvement to combat escalating violence linked to drug trafficking. Despite his efforts and support from the U.S., crime rates remain high, and public criticism grows over militarized strategies. Opposition candidate Luisa Gonzalez, favored for the run-off, could pivot policy towards addressing socio-economic issues rather than military solutions.
As Ecuador approaches the second round of presidential elections on April 13, incumbent President Daniel Noboa has made headlines with his proposal to incorporate foreign military special forces into the country’s ongoing fight against drug trafficking and organized crime. Noboa, a 37-year-old Miami-born heir to a banana fortune, has sought constitutional amendments to allow foreign military bases as Ecuador’s security situation deteriorates. Since his election victory in October 2023, the nation has witnessed a surge in violence, becoming the most violent country in Latin America.
In the first 50 days of 2025, Ecuador recorded 1,300 homicides, representing a staggering 40% increase from the previous year. The emergence of Ecuador as a leading cocaine exporter to Europe has been facilitated by the activities of various cartels, including Mexican and Colombian groups, exploiting the country’s weak institutions. U.S. security analysts are now advocating for a “Plan Colombia”—a large-scale military and counternarcotics support initiative similar to that of Colombia—to aid Ecuador, which was once celebrated as an “island of peace.”
The proposed $15 billion aid plan aims to replicate successes seen in Colombia, where a similar initiative significantly lowered urban crime rates. However, the landscape has changed since a 2016 peace deal led to the exit of insurgent groups, leading to increased drug trafficking through Ecuador. In response to an escalated crisis, the Biden administration has engaged with Noboa, emphasizing defense and intelligence partnerships to combat the burgeoning threats.
The U.S. has prepared a five-year, $93 million aid package comprising military resources including bullet-proof vests and aircraft, facilitated by the recent “status of forces” agreement. Conversely, Ecuador’s Defense Ministry has enlisted foreign lobbying assistance from Matrix Aviation Inc., seeking to enhance military financing capabilities and aid in drug trafficking suppression efforts. Despite facing challenges, Noboa has been cultivating relationships within the U.S. administration to amplify security support amidst internal discord and a dropout in approval ratings.
Noboa’s political rival, Luisa Gonzalez, presents an alternative approach, as a protégé of former President Rafael Correa, whose tenure was marked by economic growth and reduced violence. Recent interventions by U.S. authorities, including sanctions against Correa and Glas, signal support for Noboa. Nevertheless, the ongoing violence and militarization post-Correa has adversely affected Noboa’s popularity.
Experts argue the next president should focus on addressing poverty and inequality in addition to strengthening state presence in conflict-ridden areas rather than pursuing strictly militarized solutions. Investment in social sectors, education, and tariff benefits are proposed alternatives to violent strategies. Reports indicate that excessive military involvement could provoke public dissent against foreign influence over Ecuador’s sovereignty, complicating Noboa’s security gambit.
The economic challenges facing the Noboa administration further jeopardize prospects for substantial U.S. military aid, with Ecuador’s economy suffering due to austerity measures and global tensions impacting trade. Noboa’s attempts to secure military support have also been hampered by the backlash from decisions such as relinquishing military equipment to Ukraine.
As U.S.-bound migration pressures mount and local politics remain fractious, Noboa’s reliance on increased military presence to address violence may lack effectiveness. With elections looming, the capacity for Noboa to convince voters of his ability to restore peace and security in such a compressed timeframe remains dubious.
In conclusion, as Ecuador prepares for a pivotal electoral moment, President Daniel Noboa’s strategy to combat violence with foreign military involvement raises significant concerns. The historical context of U.S. military aid packages, the overarching influence of drug cartels, and the socio-economic challenges confronting the nation must be carefully navigated. As voices for alternative approaches gain traction, Noboa’s reliance on past methods may not adequately address the complex problems facing Ecuador, potentially hindering his efforts to regain voter confidence in the upcoming elections.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
