The US has decided not to renew waivers for electricity imports from Iran, prompting Iraq to seek alternatives. Iraq relies heavily on Iranian gas and electricity, and disruptions could lead to significant power losses and societal unrest. Strategies to mitigate shortages include increasing fuel oil supplies and strengthening connections with Saudi Arabia. Although diplomatic relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government remain strained, there is potential for compromise in addressing payment disputes.
The United States has opted not to renew waivers for electricity imports from Iran, although gas imports remain technically exempt. Iraq heavily depends on Iran for 22% of its gas and electricity, raising concerns about the sustainability of its power grid without alternative sources. Iman Nasseri from FGE stated that despite exemptions, US sanctions on Iraq’s payment mechanisms could still be implemented.
The Iraqi Electricity Ministry warns that the country’s electricity grid may lose over 30% of its capacity if gas imports are compromised, potentially igniting protests, particularly in Basra. Ahmed Moussa of the Electricity Ministry expressed concern that energy shortages could lead to civil unrest, drawing parallels to previous blackout incidents.
As a response, Iraq plans to mitigate shortages by increasing fuel oil supplies from 35,000 to 100,000 barrels per day. Additionally, efforts are underway to improve grid connections with Saudi Arabia and to invest in associated gas resources, thereby reducing reliance on Iranian imports.
The non-renewal of energy waivers is a continuation of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach towards Iran, with National Security Advisor Mike Waltz emphasizing that sanctions would continue if Iran escalates its nuclear weapons program and supports regional terrorism. He also encouraged Iraq to build relationships with US energy firms.
Despite ongoing US pressure, disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) regarding payment mechanisms and oil contracts have stalled negotiations. An anonymous source from an involved oil company mentioned that despite persistent tensions, a compromise remains a possibility.
In conclusion, Iraq faces significant challenges due to the US decision to cut energy waivers for Iranian electricity imports, amplifying concerns over its power grid’s sustainability. The government’s strategy includes increasing domestic fuel oil supplies and fostering partnerships to ensure energy stability, while navigating complex diplomatic relations with both the US and the KRG. The potential for unrest due to energy shortages underscores the urgency of these developments.
Original Source: shafaq.com
