The Gaza ceasefire has collapsed following Israeli airstrikes after halted negotiations with Hamas, killing over 400. Concurrently, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen to exert pressure on Iran. Experts highlight the complexities of Israeli and U.S. strategies and suggest that the Iranian leadership remains resistant to negotiations under duress.
Recent events have raised concerns regarding the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire and the United States’ military actions in Yemen. Following failed negotiations with Hamas, Israel halted humanitarian aid to Gaza, subsequently cutting off power and launching significant airstrikes that resulted in over 400 deaths. Meanwhile, the U.S. responded to threats on shipping routes in the Red Sea by executing airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels, aiming to signal pressure on Iran regarding a new nuclear agreement.
Professor Scott Lucas of University College Dublin asserts that the Israeli airstrikes have definitively ended the ceasefire. The initial phase of the ceasefire concluded without a possibility for a phase two, as Prime Minister Netanyahu faced pressure from both hard-right factions within his government and families of hostages held by Hamas. With these complex dynamics, hostages remained a crucial leverage point for Hamas, while Israel sought to renew aerial assault measures.
Currently, there lacks a coherent long-term strategy for Gaza from Israeli leadership. Netanyahu’s focus is primarily on a short-term solution regarding hostage return amid political turmoil, alongside ongoing hostilities. Meanwhile, tensions in the West Bank also mount, as Israeli operations escalate, potentially indicating an intention to solidify control via expansions in settlements.
Former President Donald Trump viewed the Gaza ceasefire as a hallmark of his diplomacy. With the breakdown, he will likely shift his focus to criticizing Hamas while maintaining a façade of peacemaking. Concurrently, Trump’s military strategy in Yemen reflects a desire to build support domestically by portraying strength while managing public perception amidst economic concerns.
The strikes in Yemen can be seen as a strategic move to reinforce U.S. interests against Iranian influence in the region, possibly enhancing relationships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE while aiming to stabilize shipping routes. However, Iran’s muted response is attributed to its internal crises, including economic turmoil and diminished power projection across the region.
Concerning the future of a nuclear agreement, Trump’s administration may miscalculate that military actions can compel Iran to negotiate. Supreme Leader Khamenei remains skeptical of U.S. intentions, dismissing the idea of negotiations under duress as disingenuous. The Iranian leadership recalls successful past negotiations only after facing dire economic conditions and is now resistant to military threats, opting instead for a more cautious approach to dialogue with the United States.
The collapse of the Gaza ceasefire is predominantly attributed to the breakdown of negotiations and Israel’s renewed military actions. Concurrently, U.S. airstrikes in Yemen address Iran’s influence amid escalated conflicts and naval threats. Iran’s leadership expresses reluctance to engage in negotiations with the U.S. under these aggressive conditions, posing significant challenges for future diplomatic endeavors regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Original Source: theconversation.com
